2011 · Week 16

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Tim Tebow

14·40

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 30°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapBills
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.000
  • 39.5%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.100EPA / dropback+0.012
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.023
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -6.16CPOE+0.64
  • 30.8%Third-down rate30.9%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
  • 1.16Points / drive1.56
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. BUF are 9-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ DEN30–33DEN
2024 · playoffsDEN @ BUF7–31BUF
2023 · W10DEN @ BUF24–22DEN
2020 · W15BUF @ DEN48–19BUF
2019 · W12DEN @ BUF3–20BUF
2017 · W3DEN @ BUF16–26BUF
2014 · W14BUF @ DEN17–24DEN
2008 · W16BUF @ DEN30–23BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–BUF
BUFQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:531173Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 7:13439Missed field goal7–0
DENQ1 5:034-5Punt7–0
BUFQ1 2:52525Missed field goal7–0
DENQ1 0:2537Punt7–0
BUFQ2 13:37523Punt7–0
DENQ2 10:3432Punt7–0
BUFQ2 8:57664Field goal7–3
DENQ2 6:0639Opp touchdown7–10
BUFQ2 4:0500Opp touchdown7–10
DENQ2 4:0539Punt7–10
BUFQ2 1:52653Touchdown7–17
DENQ2 0:1900End of half7–17
DENQ3 15:00869Touchdown14–17
BUFQ3 11:42849Field goal14–20
DENQ3 6:1930Punt14–20
BUFQ3 5:17656Field goal14–23
DENQ3 2:3256Turnover14–23
BUFQ3 0:23516Field goal14–26
DENQ4 13:2642Punt14–26
BUFQ4 12:06617Punt14–32
DENQ4 8:1410Opp touchdown14–33
DENQ4 8:031-8Opp touchdown14–40
DENQ4 7:451361Turnover14–40
BUFQ4 3:38311Punt14–40
DENQ4 2:38961Turnover on downs14–40
BUFQ4 0:2100End of half14–40

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Tebow13/2918513

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee15644.30
Tim Tebow10343.41
Jeremiah Johnson6233.80
Lance Ball4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas48760
Dante Rosario22460
Daniel Fells22221
Jeremiah Johnson22190
Matt Willis12110
Virgil Green1190
Eddie Royal1320
Willis McGahee0100
Lance Ball0300
Eric Decker0400

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick15/2719600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller161116.91
Tashard Choice9273.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick3227.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson47920
David Nelson35410
C.J. Spiller23270
Kevin Brock11210
Derek Hagan2290
Brad Smith1180
Mike Caussin1160
Scott Chandler0200
Tashard Choice15-80

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.17