Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.000
- 39.5%Success rate44.6%
- -0.100EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.023
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.9%
- -6.16CPOE+0.64
- 30.8%Third-down rate30.9%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.16Points / drive1.56
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. BUF are 9-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 13/29 | 185 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Johnson | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Johnson | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 15/27 | 196 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 16 | 111 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 4 | 7 | 92 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Kevin Brock | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Caussin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 5 | -8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.17