Closing spread
STL -3
Total
44
Model margin
+9.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–4 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 48.1 points. STL are 3-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 15/28 | 97 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Moats | 12 | 78 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Reno Mahe | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Lamar Gordon | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
6.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.54
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.