Closing spread
STL -3
Total
44
Model margin
+9.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.8 points. STL are 4-12-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 74 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PHI | Q1 8:55 | 4 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 7:34 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 7–3 |
| PHI | Q1 6:04 | 10 | 23 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 1:38 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 7–3 |
| PHI | Q2 12:14 | 2 | -2 | Turnover | 7–9 |
| LA | Q2 11:06 | 1 | 5 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| PHI | Q2 11:00 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 9:37 | 6 | 30 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| PHI | Q2 6:13 | 9 | 14 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LA | Q2 1:46 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 7–13 |
| PHI | Q2 0:36 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 7–13 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LA | Q3 14:04 | 7 | 9 | Punt | 7–13 |
| PHI | Q3 11:26 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| LA | Q3 11:11 | 5 | 27 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| PHI | Q3 8:30 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–16 |
| LA | Q3 8:14 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–16 |
| PHI | Q3 6:16 | 6 | 25 | Field goal | 10–16 |
| LA | Q3 3:10 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 10–16 |
| PHI | Q3 2:49 | 7 | 33 | Touchdown | 17–16 |
| LA | Q4 14:52 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–16 |
| PHI | Q4 13:16 | 8 | 25 | Turnover | 17–16 |
| LA | Q4 10:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–16 |
| PHI | Q4 9:06 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 17–16 |
| LA | Q4 6:40 | 6 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 17–16 |
| PHI | Q4 3:14 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 17–16 |
| LA | Q4 2:48 | 11 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 17–16 |
| PHI | Q4 0:53 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 15/28 | 97 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Moats | 12 | 78 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Reno Mahe | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Lamar Gordon | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
6.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.54
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.