2005 · Week 16 · Division
Final / OT
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play-0.066
- 40.6%Success rate39.7%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.064
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.068
- 9.3%Explosive rate6.8%
- 43.8%Third-down rate38.9%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.65Points / drive1.36
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.022EPA / play allowed-0.097
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 16/26 | 161 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 11 | 63 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 1 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Simms | 29/42 | 285 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 31 | 150 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.77