Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
31
Model margin
-3.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.138EPA / play-0.059
- 37.0%Success rate42.0%
- -0.147EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.158
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.6%
- 28.3%Third-down rate41.1%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.08Points / drive1.29
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.167EPA / play allowed-0.052
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 11/23 | 166 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 25 | 105 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 30/51 | 317 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Herron | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Tony Fisher | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.3%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.21
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-3.28