Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
31
Model margin
-3.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.138EPA / play-0.059
- 37.0%Success rate42.0%
- -0.147EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.158
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.6%
- 28.3%Third-down rate41.1%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.08Points / drive1.29
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.167EPA / play allowed-0.052
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 41–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 9:51 | 10 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 5:00 | 18 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CHI | Q2 12:05 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| GB | Q2 11:07 | 12 | 46 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| CHI | Q2 6:07 | 3 | 61 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| GB | Q2 5:05 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 14–7 |
| CHI | Q2 1:55 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| GB | Q2 0:41 | 2 | 7 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| CHI | Q2 0:25 | 2 | 1 | End of half | 14–7 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 14–7 |
| GB | Q3 12:49 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–7 |
| CHI | Q3 11:54 | 5 | 33 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| GB | Q3 9:39 | 8 | 29 | Missed field goal | 17–7 |
| CHI | Q3 6:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 23–7 |
| GB | Q3 4:06 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 24–7 |
| GB | Q3 4:01 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 24–7 |
| CHI | Q3 1:16 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 24–7 |
| GB | Q4 14:49 | 3 | 10 | Turnover | 24–7 |
| CHI | Q4 13:56 | 9 | 34 | Opp touchdown | 24–14 |
| CHI | Q4 7:54 | 7 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 24–14 |
| GB | Q4 3:44 | 8 | 65 | Field goal | 24–17 |
| CHI | Q4 1:54 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 24–17 |
| GB | Q4 1:26 | 4 | 39 | Turnover | 24–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 11/23 | 166 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 25 | 105 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 30/51 | 317 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Herron | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Tony Fisher | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.3%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.21
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-3.28