Closing spread
CAR -5.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.011
- 40.5%Success rate41.2%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.125
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.116
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- 41.9%Third-down rate43.3%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.55Points / drive1.90
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.118
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 13:20 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 11:51 | 4 | 74 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 10:05 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–9 |
| CAR | Q1 9:56 | 1 | 32 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q1 9:49 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q1 7:00 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q1 5:25 | 4 | 32 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q1 3:15 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q1 1:46 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| CAR | Q2 11:00 | 7 | 47 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| DAL | Q2 6:50 | 8 | 23 | Punt | 10–13 |
| CAR | Q2 3:32 | 7 | 40 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| DAL | Q2 1:10 | 7 | 34 | Missed field goal | 10–13 |
| CAR | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–13 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–13 |
| CAR | Q3 12:50 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–13 |
| DAL | Q3 11:15 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 10–13 |
| CAR | Q3 8:35 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–13 |
| DAL | Q3 7:35 | 5 | 81 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| CAR | Q3 4:50 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 17–13 |
| DAL | Q3 2:51 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–13 |
| CAR | Q3 0:53 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| DAL | Q4 14:47 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 17–13 |
| CAR | Q4 10:34 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 17–13 |
| DAL | Q4 7:55 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 17–13 |
| CAR | Q4 5:56 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| DAL | Q4 2:32 | 9 | 54 | Touchdown | 24–20 |
| CAR | Q4 0:24 | 3 | 0 | End of half | 24–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 15/23 | 209 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 34 | 194 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Marion Barber | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 14/31 | 260 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 22 | 68 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.11