Closing spread
NE -4
Total
37.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.124
- 44.6%Success rate40.1%
- +0.186EPA / dropback-0.093
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.171
- 9.5%Explosive rate5.7%
- 42.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate39.0%
- 1.91Points / drive1.30
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.034EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/29 | 185 | 2 | 1 |
| Doug Flutie | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 26 | 77 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Kevin Faulk | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Doug Flutie | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 11/19 | 100 | 1 | 1 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3/7 | 63 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Blaylock | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Cedric Houston | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.44