2005 · Week 16

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Mike McMahon

21·27

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Josh McCown

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

ARI -1

Total

39.5

Model margin

+7.8est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCardinals
  • -0.104EPA / play-0.074
  • 39.5%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.063EPA / dropback+0.031
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.308
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 34.3%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate42.5%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.36
  • 3.0%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.050

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–ARI
PHIQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:3239Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:2548Turnover on downs0–0
ARIQ1 10:27822Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 7:2443Punt0–3
ARIQ1 5:28447Field goal0–6
PHIQ1 3:3435Punt0–6
ARIQ1 2:2935Punt0–6
PHIQ1 0:3036Punt0–6
ARIQ2 14:05727Punt0–12
PHIQ2 10:3510Opp touchdown0–13
PHIQ2 10:28866Touchdown7–13
ARIQ2 6:383-9Punt7–13
PHIQ2 5:03510Punt7–13
ARIQ2 3:0839Punt7–13
PHIQ2 2:09416Punt7–13
ARIQ2 0:19217Missed field goal7–13
PHIQ2 0:0310End of half7–13
ARIQ3 15:00861Touchdown7–20
PHIQ3 10:3632Punt7–20
ARIQ3 8:58641Turnover7–20
PHIQ3 5:1947Punt7–20
ARIQ3 4:021397Touchdown7–27
PHIQ4 11:25436Touchdown14–27
ARIQ4 10:21927Punt14–27
PHIQ4 5:1039Punt14–27
ARIQ4 4:2831Punt14–27
PHIQ4 4:0230Punt14–27
ARIQ4 3:3338Punt14–27
PHIQ4 1:45724Touchdown21–27
ARIQ4 0:2600End of half21–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike McMahon12/3315111
Koy Detmer2/31900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike McMahon3217.02
Ryan Moats9131.40
Reno Mahe451.30
Bruce Perry144.00

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown27/3829421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcel Shipp13423.20
J.J. Arrington10232.30
Josh McCown482.00
Damien Anderson273.50
Obafemi Ayanbadejo210.50
Anquan Boldin1-6-6.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.9%5.7%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.3%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.44
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.78