Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
33
Model margin
-3.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play-0.131
- 43.9%Success rate39.5%
- +0.202EPA / dropback-0.097
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.183
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- 35.7%Third-down rate32.4%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate38.1%
- 1.99Points / drive1.22
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.084EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 13/20 | 226 | 1 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1/1 | 31 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 17 | 130 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Jerome Bettis | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 20/39 | 183 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Lee Suggs | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.04
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.27