Closing spread
NYJ -1.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.082EPA / play-0.124
- 39.5%Success rate40.1%
- -0.036EPA / dropback-0.093
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.171
- 7.0%Explosive rate5.7%
- 37.9%Third-down rate35.3%
- 43.1%Red-zone TD rate39.0%
- 1.44Points / drive1.30
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.069EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 13:07 | 7 | 48 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 9:29 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 7:47 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 7:29 | 2 | 13 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 6:20 | 1 | 5 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 5:46 | 2 | -5 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| BUF | Q1 4:58 | 10 | 62 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 14:12 | 2 | 46 | Touchdown | 6–10 |
| BUF | Q2 13:31 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 6–17 |
| BUF | Q2 13:15 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 6–17 |
| NYJ | Q2 10:40 | 5 | 15 | Missed field goal | 6–17 |
| BUF | Q2 8:49 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| NYJ | Q2 3:57 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–17 |
| BUF | Q2 1:52 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–17 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:08 | 2 | 2 | End of half | 13–17 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 27 | Field goal | 16–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 11:52 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 16–20 |
| BUF | Q3 5:26 | 9 | 45 | Touchdown | 23–20 |
| NYJ | Q3 0:36 | 11 | 55 | Field goal | 23–23 |
| BUF | Q4 10:35 | 10 | 32 | Field goal | 26–29 |
| NYJ | Q4 6:13 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 26–30 |
| BUF | Q4 5:58 | 7 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 26–30 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:46 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 26–30 |
| BUF | Q4 0:54 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 26–30 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:37 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 26–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 23/37 | 184 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 22 | 113 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | 39 | 39.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 11/20 | 153 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Houston | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.35
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-0.57