Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
42
Model margin
-0.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.020
- 41.2%Success rate40.6%
- +0.125EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.024
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- 43.3%Third-down rate43.8%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.90Points / drive1.65
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.118EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 14/20 | 163 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 2/5 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 18 | 165 | 9.2 | 1 |
| Jamal Robertson | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smart | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 15/24 | 115 | 0 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 9/13 | 110 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 6 | -4 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.79