Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
35
Model margin
+2.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.138EPA / play-0.074
- 37.0%Success rate40.6%
- -0.147EPA / dropback-0.009
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.185
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.1%
- 28.3%Third-down rate33.7%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.08Points / drive1.46
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.167EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 12:40 | 13 | 63 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 5:14 | 7 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q1 3:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 0:47 | 4 | 24 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q2 14:53 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 3–3 |
| MIN | Q2 12:15 | 8 | 90 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q2 7:37 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q2 6:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q2 4:12 | 6 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q2 1:48 | 11 | 84 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| CHI | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–17 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 3–17 |
| MIN | Q3 12:26 | 16 | 97 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| CHI | Q3 3:58 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–24 |
| MIN | Q3 0:58 | 3 | -1 | Field goal | 3–27 |
| CHI | Q4 14:52 | 13 | 64 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| MIN | Q4 7:08 | 4 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–34 |
| CHI | Q4 5:10 | 7 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 10–34 |
| MIN | Q4 1:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 6/14 | 59 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 7/8 | 44 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 27/40 | 247 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 6 | 82 | 13.7 | 1 |
| Mewelde Moore | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Troy Williamson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ciatrick Fason | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Shaun Hill | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.76