Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
35
Model margin
+2.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.138EPA / play-0.074
- 37.0%Success rate40.6%
- -0.147EPA / dropback-0.009
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.185
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.1%
- 28.3%Third-down rate33.7%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.08Points / drive1.46
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.167EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 6/14 | 59 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 7/8 | 44 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 27/40 | 247 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 6 | 82 | 13.7 | 1 |
| Mewelde Moore | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Troy Williamson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ciatrick Fason | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Shaun Hill | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.76