Closing spread
NE -3
Total
37
Model margin
-1.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.076
- 40.9%Success rate44.6%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.083
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- 35.3%Third-down rate42.3%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 1.48Points / drive1.91
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.029EPA / play allowed+0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 22/35 | 239 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 28 | 108 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 11/20 | 168 | 2 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3/8 | 37 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Pass | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.27
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-0.97