2005 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -13
Total
37.5
Model margin
+6.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play-0.066
- 41.1%Success rate39.7%
- -0.030EPA / dropback-0.064
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.068
- 8.1%Explosive rate6.8%
- 38.7%Third-down rate38.9%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.11Points / drive1.36
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.032EPA / play allowed-0.097
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Bouman | 25/37 | 265 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Todd Bouman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Simms | 12/25 | 143 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 22 | 81 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 64 | 64.0 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.9%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.78