2005 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
WAS -7
Total
37
Model margin
-5.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play-0.104
- 41.3%Success rate39.5%
- +0.100EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.192
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- 43.1%Third-down rate34.3%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.80Points / drive1.28
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.058EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 13:56 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 12:20 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q1 10:16 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q1 9:21 | 5 | 37 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| PHI | Q1 6:41 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 7–3 |
| WAS | Q1 4:40 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 7–3 |
| PHI | Q1 3:25 | 7 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| WAS | Q1 0:33 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 7–10 |
| PHI | Q2 13:54 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–10 |
| WAS | Q2 12:31 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 7–10 |
| PHI | Q2 10:56 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| WAS | Q2 6:05 | 10 | 75 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| PHI | Q2 1:01 | 4 | 22 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| WAS | Q2 0:26 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| PHI | Q2 0:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–17 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| PHI | Q3 11:46 | 6 | 37 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| WAS | Q3 8:52 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 17–20 |
| PHI | Q3 6:23 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–20 |
| WAS | Q3 4:32 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–20 |
| PHI | Q3 3:24 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 17–20 |
| WAS | Q3 1:08 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–20 |
| PHI | Q4 14:41 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 23–20 |
| WAS | Q4 12:28 | 1 | 22 | Touchdown | 24–20 |
| PHI | Q4 12:19 | 1 | -1 | Turnover | 24–20 |
| PHI | Q4 11:39 | 1 | 3 | Turnover | 24–20 |
| PHI | Q4 11:13 | 3 | 22 | Turnover | 24–20 |
| WAS | Q4 9:50 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 24–20 |
| PHI | Q4 7:39 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 24–20 |
| WAS | Q4 5:40 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 24–20 |
| PHI | Q4 3:11 | 4 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 31–20 |
| PHI | Q4 2:16 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 31–20 |
| WAS | Q4 1:51 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 9/25 | 141 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 27 | 112 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Ladell Betts | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 16/31 | 234 | 2 | 1 |
| Koy Detmer | 5/11 | 27 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Perry | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Moats | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
33.8%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.81