Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.041
- 41.2%Success rate42.4%
- +0.125EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.026
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- 43.3%Third-down rate39.9%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.90Points / drive1.87
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.118EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.4 points. NYG are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 15/22 | 140 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 27 | 151 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 1 |
| Chris Weinke | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.89