Closing spread
NE -8
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.076
- 42.5%Success rate44.6%
- +0.113EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.083
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- 41.0%Third-down rate42.3%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 1.68Points / drive1.91
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.066EPA / play allowed+0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–3 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NE are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 13:23 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 11:41 | 9 | 45 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 7:59 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 5:51 | 7 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 1:41 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q2 14:13 | 6 | 37 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q2 12:08 | 5 | 38 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| NE | Q2 8:56 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q2 6:50 | 11 | 66 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 1:05 | 5 | 16 | End of half | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q3 13:55 | 12 | 72 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| JAX | Q3 7:13 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–14 |
| NE | Q3 5:56 | 6 | 81 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| JAX | Q3 3:03 | 6 | 30 | Opp touchdown | 3–28 |
| JAX | Q4 14:46 | 11 | 51 | Missed field goal | 3–28 |
| NE | Q4 11:12 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–28 |
| JAX | Q4 8:58 | 10 | 82 | Turnover on downs | 3–28 |
| NE | Q4 5:03 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 3–28 |
| JAX | Q4 3:33 | 4 | -1 | Turnover on downs | 3–28 |
| NE | Q4 2:22 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 3–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 18/31 | 179 | 0 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 3/8 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Alvin Pearman | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/27 | 201 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 6 | 51 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 17 | 40 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.73