2005 · WC

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Byron Leftwich

3·28

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 24°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

NE -8

Total

37.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.026EPA / play+0.076
  • 42.5%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.113EPA / dropback+0.186
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.083
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.5%
  • 41.0%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
  • 1.68Points / drive1.91
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.066EPA / play allowed+0.034

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 9–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7NE @ JAX16–32JAX
2021 · W17JAX @ NE10–50NE
2018 · W2NE @ JAX20–31JAX
2017 · playoffsJAX @ NE20–24NE
2015 · W3JAX @ NE17–51NE
2012 · W16NE @ JAX23–16NE
2009 · W16JAX @ NE7–35NE
2007 · playoffsJAX @ NE20–31NE

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich18/3117901
David Garrard3/86800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Byron Leftwich3268.70
Fred Taylor8243.00
David Garrard2147.00
Alvin Pearman284.00

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady15/2720130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Faulk6518.50
Corey Dillon17402.40
Andre Davis11313.00
Tom Brady294.50
Patrick Pass166.00
Matt Cassel1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +84.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.73