Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
44
Model margin
-5.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play+0.102
- 43.9%Success rate48.2%
- +0.202EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.067EPA / rush+0.023
- 9.7%Explosive rate9.1%
- 35.7%Third-down rate43.8%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.99Points / drive2.30
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.084EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 41–16 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 11:19 | 8 | 84 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 6:54 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q1 4:35 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q1 1:09 | 8 | 45 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| CIN | Q2 13:11 | 16 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| PIT | Q2 6:13 | 6 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| CIN | Q2 3:48 | 6 | 4 | Punt | 14–17 |
| PIT | Q2 1:14 | 4 | 5 | End of half | 14–17 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 67 | Turnover on downs | 14–17 |
| PIT | Q3 9:51 | 9 | 26 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| CIN | Q3 5:12 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 21–17 |
| PIT | Q3 2:38 | 3 | 50 | Touchdown | 28–17 |
| CIN | Q3 1:13 | 6 | 12 | Turnover | 28–17 |
| PIT | Q4 13:25 | 5 | 37 | Field goal | 31–17 |
| CIN | Q4 10:29 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 31–17 |
| PIT | Q4 9:50 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 31–17 |
| CIN | Q4 6:42 | 7 | 35 | Turnover | 31–17 |
| PIT | Q4 4:12 | 5 | 54 | End of half | 31–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 14/19 | 208 | 3 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Willie Parker | 16 | 38 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 24/40 | 197 | 1 | 2 |
| Carson Palmer | 1/1 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Jon Kitna | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.83
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.46