Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
44
Model margin
+3.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.088
- 44.6%Success rate44.7%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.083EPA / rush+0.067
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.5%
- 42.3%Third-down rate36.1%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.97
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
- +0.034EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 11:41 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 9:21 | 7 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 5:27 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 2:34 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 1:23 | 12 | 70 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| NE | Q2 10:43 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q2 8:15 | 4 | 26 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NE | Q2 6:10 | 6 | 67 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q2 3:48 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q2 2:41 | 3 | 32 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q2 1:51 | 2 | 1 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 1:42 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q2 1:33 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| NE | Q2 0:43 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–10 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NE | Q3 13:21 | 10 | 58 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| DEN | Q3 7:49 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 6–10 |
| NE | Q3 4:39 | 7 | 78 | Turnover | 6–16 |
| DEN | Q3 0:47 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| NE | Q3 0:43 | 8 | 46 | Missed field goal | 6–17 |
| DEN | Q4 12:48 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 6–17 |
| DEN | Q4 10:10 | 3 | 15 | Touchdown | 6–24 |
| NE | Q4 8:38 | 2 | 77 | Touchdown | 13–24 |
| DEN | Q4 8:05 | 7 | 61 | Field goal | 13–27 |
| NE | Q4 3:20 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 13–27 |
| DEN | Q4 2:56 | 2 | 22 | End of half | 13–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/36 | 341 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 15/26 | 197 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 19 | 69 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Tatum Bell | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.84