Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
44
Model margin
+3.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.088
- 44.6%Success rate44.7%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.083EPA / rush+0.067
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.5%
- 42.3%Third-down rate36.1%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.97
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
- +0.034EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/36 | 341 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 15/26 | 197 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 19 | 69 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Tatum Bell | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.84