Closing spread
SEA -5.5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.156
- 41.2%Success rate49.3%
- +0.125EPA / dropback+0.205
- -0.116EPA / rush+0.100
- 7.4%Explosive rate11.2%
- 43.3%Third-down rate40.1%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate78.4%
- 1.90Points / drive2.39
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.118EPA / play allowed-0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. SEA are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:38 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 9:29 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 7:47 | 5 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 5:31 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 5:07 | 5 | 14 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q1 2:23 | 4 | 2 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q1 0:50 | 4 | 17 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| CAR | Q2 14:53 | 7 | 41 | Punt | 0–17 |
| SEA | Q2 11:15 | 4 | 10 | Opp touchdown | 7–17 |
| SEA | Q2 9:05 | 10 | 72 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| CAR | Q2 4:03 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–20 |
| SEA | Q2 3:06 | 9 | 42 | Missed field goal | 7–20 |
| CAR | Q2 0:29 | 4 | 11 | End of half | 7–20 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–27 |
| CAR | Q3 11:09 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–27 |
| SEA | Q3 9:36 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 7–27 |
| CAR | Q3 6:26 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–27 |
| SEA | Q3 4:47 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–27 |
| CAR | Q3 3:15 | 6 | 47 | Turnover | 7–27 |
| SEA | Q3 1:25 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 7–27 |
| CAR | Q4 12:19 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 7–27 |
| SEA | Q4 10:48 | 8 | 38 | Touchdown | 7–34 |
| CAR | Q4 6:00 | 4 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–34 |
| SEA | Q4 5:09 | 7 | 3 | Turnover on downs | 14–34 |
| CAR | Q4 1:56 | 3 | 26 | Turnover | 14–34 |
| SEA | Q4 1:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 15/35 | 196 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Robertson | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 20/28 | 219 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 34 | 132 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.41
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.06