2005 · CON

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

14·34

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

SEA -5.5

Total

43

Model margin

+3.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.011EPA / play+0.156
  • 41.2%Success rate49.3%
  • +0.125EPA / dropback+0.205
  • -0.116EPA / rush+0.100
  • 7.4%Explosive rate11.2%
  • 43.3%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate78.4%
  • 1.90Points / drive2.39
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%
  • -0.118EPA / play allowed-0.046

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 12–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. SEA are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17SEA @ CAR27–10SEA
2023 · W3CAR @ SEA27–37SEA
2022 · W14CAR @ SEA30–24CAR
2019 · W15SEA @ CAR30–24SEA
2018 · W12SEA @ CAR30–27SEA
2016 · W13CAR @ SEA7–40SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W6CAR @ SEA27–23CAR

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme15/3519613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Robertson4194.80
Jake Delhomme3155.00
Nick Goings520.40

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck20/2821920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander341323.92
Matt Hasselbeck6274.50
Maurice Morris7243.40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.06