Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play+0.088
- 43.9%Success rate44.7%
- +0.202EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.067EPA / rush+0.067
- 9.7%Explosive rate9.5%
- 35.7%Third-down rate36.1%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.99Points / drive1.97
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.084EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–6 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/29 | 275 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 15 | 39 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Willie Parker | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 18/30 | 223 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Tatum Bell | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.54