Closing spread
CHI -3.5
Total
35
Model margin
+2.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.067
- 40.3%Success rate40.0%
- -0.039EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.146
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.1%
- -3.50CPOE-5.72
- 37.7%Third-down rate38.9%
- 50.6%Red-zone TD rate36.6%
- 1.80Points / drive1.28
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 18/26 | 262 | 1 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 1/1 | -4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 21 | 63 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 15/29 | 170 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 20 | 110 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
40.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.26