Closing spread
MIA -6.5
Total
37
Model margin
+3.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.103
- 41.6%Success rate41.6%
- -0.033EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.157EPA / rush-0.139
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.2%
- +3.28CPOE-1.62
- 30.9%Third-down rate37.7%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.31Points / drive1.19
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | -11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 11:39 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 10:26 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 8:22 | 9 | 49 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q1 2:36 | 9 | 33 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q2 12:34 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 10:52 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q2 8:24 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 7:00 | 14 | 76 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q2 0:56 | 2 | 6 | End of half | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 17 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| MIA | Q3 10:09 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| BUF | Q3 8:41 | 7 | 29 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| MIA | Q3 3:54 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q3 1:52 | 4 | 2 | Field goal | 16–0 |
| MIA | Q3 0:48 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 16–0 |
| BUF | Q4 13:16 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 16–0 |
| MIA | Q4 10:50 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 16–0 |
| BUF | Q4 9:49 | 8 | 46 | Punt | 16–0 |
| MIA | Q4 4:47 | 11 | 93 | Touchdown | 16–6 |
| BUF | Q4 1:54 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 16–6 |
| MIA | Q4 0:06 | 1 | 22 | End of half | 16–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 11/18 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 25 | 91 | 3.6 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 23/32 | 250 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Lee Suggs | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.41
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.75