Closing spread
MIA -6.5
Total
37
Model margin
+3.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.103
- 41.6%Success rate41.6%
- -0.033EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.157EPA / rush-0.139
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.2%
- +3.28CPOE-1.62
- 30.9%Third-down rate37.7%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.31Points / drive1.19
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 11/18 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 25 | 91 | 3.6 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 23/32 | 250 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Lee Suggs | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.41
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.75