Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
32
Model margin
+5.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play-0.046
- 42.6%Success rate40.3%
- -0.057EPA / dropback-0.039
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.054
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.25CPOE-3.50
- 33.0%Third-down rate37.7%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 1.48Points / drive1.80
- 3.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 23/30 | 230 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 20/27 | 289 | 4 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 21 | 64 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.19