Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
32
Model margin
+5.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play-0.046
- 42.6%Success rate40.3%
- -0.057EPA / dropback-0.039
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.054
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.25CPOE-3.50
- 33.0%Third-down rate37.7%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 1.48Points / drive1.80
- 3.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 12:01 | 3 | -2 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 10:49 | 2 | 3 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 10:11 | 2 | 30 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 9:35 | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| DET | Q1 6:19 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CHI | Q1 1:10 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| DET | Q2 14:16 | 12 | 32 | Missed field goal | 0–17 |
| CHI | Q2 7:24 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| DET | Q2 3:36 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–24 |
| CHI | Q2 1:36 | 3 | -1 | End of half | 0–24 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| CHI | Q3 10:20 | 5 | 31 | Turnover | 7–24 |
| DET | Q3 7:32 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–24 |
| CHI | Q3 6:17 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| DET | Q3 0:32 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–31 |
| CHI | Q4 13:27 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 7–34 |
| DET | Q4 10:03 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 7–34 |
| CHI | Q4 7:56 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 7–34 |
| DET | Q4 3:38 | 4 | -11 | Punt | 7–34 |
| CHI | Q4 2:44 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–34 |
| DET | Q4 0:26 | 1 | 7 | Turnover | 7–34 |
| CHI | Q4 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 23/30 | 230 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 20/27 | 289 | 4 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 21 | 64 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.19