Closing spread
NE -6
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.019
- 44.2%Success rate43.0%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.057
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.110
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.5%
- +0.89CPOE+2.38
- 43.7%Third-down rate44.6%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.82Points / drive1.74
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/29 | 220 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 20 | 80 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Laurence Maroney | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 22/37 | 306 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.69