Closing spread
NO -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.067
- 44.8%Success rate40.0%
- +0.157EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.146
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.1%
- +2.07CPOE-5.72
- 45.7%Third-down rate38.9%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate36.6%
- 1.91Points / drive1.28
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/41 | 353 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 31/55 | 340 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 16 | 42 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Noah Herron | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.69