2006 · Week 2 · Division
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -4.5
Total
36
Model margin
+2.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.186EPA / play-0.050
- 37.6%Success rate39.9%
- -0.208EPA / dropback-0.078
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.021
- 6.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- -4.51CPOE-2.80
- 37.4%Third-down rate36.3%
- 43.2%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 0.82Points / drive1.44
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Simms | 28/53 | 313 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 15 | 37 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 10/15 | 92 | 1 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 21 | 134 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 14 | 127 | 9.1 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.52
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.75