Closing spread
ATL -4
Total
45
Model margin
+5.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.072
- 39.9%Success rate44.8%
- -0.078EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.049
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- -2.80CPOE+2.07
- 36.3%Third-down rate45.7%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.44Points / drive1.91
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/31 | 137 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 20/28 | 191 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 19 | 81 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.53
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.10