Closing spread
ATL -4
Total
45
Model margin
+5.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.072
- 39.9%Success rate44.8%
- -0.078EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.049
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- -2.80CPOE+2.07
- 36.3%Third-down rate45.7%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.44Points / drive1.91
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 13:30 | 8 | 65 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| NO | Q1 9:41 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q1 8:01 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NO | Q1 6:59 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| ATL | Q1 2:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–14 |
| NO | Q1 1:14 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 3–14 |
| ATL | Q2 14:21 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 3–14 |
| NO | Q2 11:49 | 9 | 66 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| ATL | Q2 6:44 | 10 | 35 | Missed field goal | 3–17 |
| NO | Q2 1:49 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 73 | Field goal | 3–23 |
| ATL | Q3 7:14 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–23 |
| NO | Q3 5:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–23 |
| ATL | Q3 3:15 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 3–23 |
| NO | Q3 1:04 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 3–23 |
| ATL | Q4 12:39 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–23 |
| NO | Q4 11:04 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–23 |
| ATL | Q4 9:29 | 13 | 54 | Turnover on downs | 3–23 |
| NO | Q4 5:46 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 3–23 |
| ATL | Q4 2:33 | 5 | 17 | End of half | 3–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/31 | 137 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 20/28 | 191 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 19 | 81 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.53
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.10