2006 · Week 3 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
33.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.186
- 41.2%Success rate37.6%
- -0.043EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.4%
- -0.31CPOE-4.51
- 31.1%Third-down rate37.4%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate43.2%
- 1.29Points / drive0.82
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 22/36 | 272 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 20 | 82 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Simms | 13/24 | 139 | 1 | 1 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 1/1 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 19 | 48 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.52
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.32