2006 · Week 3 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
33.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.186
- 41.2%Success rate37.6%
- -0.043EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.4%
- -0.31CPOE-4.51
- 31.1%Third-down rate37.4%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate43.2%
- 1.29Points / drive0.82
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–24 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| CAR | Q1 14:10 | 1 | 31 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TB | Q1 14:01 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 12:18 | 9 | 41 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TB | Q1 7:41 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 6:11 | 7 | 26 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| TB | Q1 1:31 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 10–0 |
| CAR | Q1 0:41 | 5 | 59 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| TB | Q2 12:41 | 12 | 67 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| CAR | Q2 6:57 | 9 | 11 | Punt | 17–7 |
| TB | Q2 2:35 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–7 |
| CAR | Q2 1:43 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 20–7 |
| TB | Q2 0:50 | 1 | -3 | End of half | 20–7 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -6 | Turnover | 20–7 |
| TB | Q3 13:25 | 2 | 15 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| CAR | Q3 12:46 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| TB | Q3 11:12 | 10 | 51 | Touchdown | 20–21 |
| CAR | Q3 5:56 | 9 | 63 | Field goal | 23–21 |
| TB | Q3 0:36 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 23–21 |
| CAR | Q4 14:10 | 7 | 44 | Turnover | 23–21 |
| TB | Q4 10:04 | 7 | 51 | Field goal | 23–24 |
| CAR | Q4 5:01 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 23–24 |
| TB | Q4 2:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 23–24 |
| CAR | Q4 1:41 | 8 | 34 | Field goal | 26–24 |
| TB | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 26–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 22/36 | 272 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 20 | 82 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Simms | 13/24 | 139 | 1 | 1 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 1/1 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 19 | 48 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.52
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.32