Closing spread
CHI -3.5
Total
35
Model margin
+0.9est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.151
- 40.3%Success rate39.3%
- -0.039EPA / dropback-0.174
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.117
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- -3.50CPOE+1.13
- 37.7%Third-down rate33.2%
- 50.6%Red-zone TD rate45.1%
- 1.80Points / drive0.99
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 68 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 10:49 | 8 | 33 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| MIN | Q1 6:20 | 9 | 42 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q1 0:40 | 8 | 50 | Punt | 3–3 |
| MIN | Q2 12:26 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q2 9:34 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–3 |
| MIN | Q2 8:39 | 6 | 28 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q2 5:17 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| MIN | Q2 4:32 | 7 | 22 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| CHI | Q2 1:08 | 6 | 47 | End of half | 3–6 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 6–6 |
| MIN | Q3 10:53 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 6–6 |
| CHI | Q3 8:32 | 8 | 43 | Field goal | 9–6 |
| MIN | Q3 3:18 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 9–12 |
| CHI | Q4 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 9–13 |
| CHI | Q4 14:53 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 12–13 |
| MIN | Q4 10:37 | 7 | 51 | Field goal | 12–16 |
| CHI | Q4 7:27 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 12–16 |
| MIN | Q4 5:58 | 6 | 15 | Turnover | 12–16 |
| CHI | Q4 3:25 | 5 | 37 | Touchdown | 19–16 |
| MIN | Q4 1:53 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 19–16 |
| CHI | Q4 1:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 19–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 23/41 | 278 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 18 | 54 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 21/31 | 194 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
40.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.86