Closing spread
CHI -3.5
Total
35
Model margin
+0.9est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.151
- 40.3%Success rate39.3%
- -0.039EPA / dropback-0.174
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.117
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- -3.50CPOE+1.13
- 37.7%Third-down rate33.2%
- 50.6%Red-zone TD rate45.1%
- 1.80Points / drive0.99
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 23/41 | 278 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 18 | 54 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 21/31 | 194 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
40.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.86