Closing spread
NE -6.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play+0.063
- 40.7%Success rate44.2%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.007
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.37CPOE+0.89
- 37.1%Third-down rate43.7%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.52Points / drive1.82
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 15/30 | 256 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 27 | 123 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 31/55 | 320 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 12 | 18 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.67