Closing spread
BUF -6
Total
33
Model margin
+1.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.089
- 43.0%Success rate41.6%
- +0.057EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.157
- 6.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- +2.38CPOE+3.28
- 44.6%Third-down rate30.9%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
- 1.74Points / drive1.31
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 19/29 | 183 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Cedric Houston | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 22/38 | 328 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 26 | 150 | 5.8 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14