Closing spread
BUF -6
Total
33
Model margin
+1.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.089
- 43.0%Success rate41.6%
- +0.057EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.157
- 6.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- +2.38CPOE+3.28
- 44.6%Third-down rate30.9%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
- 1.74Points / drive1.31
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 14:05 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 11:49 | 5 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 10:26 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 9:26 | 9 | 12 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 4:47 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 2:45 | 10 | 69 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 13:27 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q2 10:17 | 6 | 50 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 6:52 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q2 5:42 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 7–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 2:43 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| BUF | Q2 0:14 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 14–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 14–10 |
| BUF | Q3 12:11 | 4 | 15 | Opp touchdown | 21–10 |
| BUF | Q3 10:05 | 7 | 14 | Punt | 21–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:57 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 21–10 |
| BUF | Q3 3:39 | 6 | 38 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 0:08 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 21–10 |
| BUF | Q4 14:04 | 8 | 72 | Field goal | 21–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:14 | 10 | 48 | Touchdown | 28–13 |
| BUF | Q4 3:20 | 10 | 82 | Touchdown | 28–20 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:15 | 0 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 28–20 |
| BUF | Q4 1:15 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 28–20 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:35 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 19/29 | 183 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Cedric Houston | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 22/38 | 328 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 26 | 150 | 5.8 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14