Closing spread
CIN -5.5
Total
46
Model margin
+0.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.044
- 44.2%Success rate45.3%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.138
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.085
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.2%
- +0.89CPOE+5.38
- 43.7%Third-down rate36.8%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.82Points / drive1.98
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 10–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/26 | 188 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 15 | 125 | 8.3 | 2 |
| Corey Dillon | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Chad Jackson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/35 | 245 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Quincy Wilson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.01