Closing spread
CAR -7
Total
41
Model margin
+1.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.071
- 44.8%Success rate41.2%
- +0.157EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.112
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- +2.07CPOE-0.31
- 45.7%Third-down rate31.1%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 1.91Points / drive1.29
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 11:27 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 9:56 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 6:19 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 5:09 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 3:14 | 9 | 54 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q2 13:05 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q2 10:18 | 11 | 68 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q2 4:05 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NO | Q2 1:32 | 8 | 55 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–7 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q3 14:00 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NO | Q3 11:39 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q3 8:11 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NO | Q3 5:22 | 15 | 73 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| CAR | Q4 13:33 | 12 | 86 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| NO | Q4 7:15 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 10–14 |
| CAR | Q4 4:54 | 7 | 73 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| NO | Q4 1:45 | 3 | 86 | Touchdown | 18–21 |
| CAR | Q4 1:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 18–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/38 | 349 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 19/29 | 169 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 16 | 105 | 6.6 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 8 | 62 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.17