2006 · Week 4

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

6·37

Bears

Chicago

QB Rex Grossman

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CHI -3.5

Total

37

Model margin

+3.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBears
  • -0.075EPA / play-0.046
  • 40.2%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.031EPA / dropback-0.039
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.054
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -1.93CPOE-3.50
  • 37.5%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.80
  • 3.2%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17SEA @ CHI6–3SEA
2021 · W16CHI @ SEA25–24CHI
2018 · W2SEA @ CHI17–24CHI
2015 · W3CHI @ SEA0–26SEA
2012 · W13SEA @ CHI23–17SEA
2011 · W15SEA @ CHI38–14SEA
2010 · playoffsSEA @ CHI24–35CHI
2010 · W6SEA @ CHI23–20SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CHI
SEAQ1 15:00517Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:2832Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:07657Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 8:581264Touchdown3–7
SEAQ1 2:273-4Punt3–7
CHIQ1 1:06755Field goal3–10
SEAQ2 13:3332Punt3–10
CHIQ2 12:303-1Punt3–10
SEAQ2 11:36439Turnover3–10
CHIQ2 9:56834Field goal3–13
SEAQ2 6:2345Turnover3–13
CHIQ2 4:52537Touchdown3–20
SEAQ2 2:251160Field goal6–20
CHIQ2 0:2715End of half6–20
CHIQ3 15:001261Touchdown6–27
SEAQ3 10:05614Punt6–27
CHIQ3 7:3737Punt6–27
SEAQ3 6:39517Punt6–27
CHIQ3 4:34768Touchdown6–34
SEAQ3 0:51615Punt6–34
CHIQ4 13:1735Punt6–34
SEAQ4 11:373-9Punt6–34
CHIQ4 9:5238Field goal6–37
SEAQ4 7:4339Punt6–37
CHIQ4 6:12617Punt6–37
SEAQ4 1:5138End of half6–37

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck16/3519602
Seneca Wallace1/2600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris11353.20
Matt Hasselbeck11919.00
Marquis Weeks382.70

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman17/3123220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones24984.12
Cedric Benson11373.40
Bernard Berrian155.00
Rex Grossman122.00
Jason McKie111.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.21