Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play+0.063
- 41.6%Success rate44.2%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.007
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.62CPOE+0.89
- 37.7%Third-down rate43.7%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.19Points / drive1.82
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 26/41 | 232 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 17 | 39 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 16/29 | 140 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 18 | 38 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.32