Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play+0.063
- 41.6%Success rate44.2%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.007
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.62CPOE+0.89
- 37.7%Third-down rate43.7%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.19Points / drive1.82
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 30–25 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:51 | 6 | 20 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q1 11:39 | 14 | 53 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 3:25 | 14 | 56 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| MIA | Q2 10:13 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| NE | Q2 8:34 | 2 | 10 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| MIA | Q2 7:49 | 9 | 95 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| NE | Q2 2:56 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–13 |
| MIA | Q2 1:39 | 7 | 40 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| NE | Q2 0:24 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–13 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–13 |
| MIA | Q3 13:51 | 6 | 10 | Turnover on downs | 10–13 |
| NE | Q3 11:25 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 10–13 |
| MIA | Q3 9:22 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 10–13 |
| NE | Q3 8:01 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 10–13 |
| MIA | Q3 5:40 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 10–13 |
| MIA | Q3 2:31 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–13 |
| NE | Q3 1:29 | 8 | 49 | Punt | 10–13 |
| MIA | Q4 12:04 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| NE | Q4 10:43 | 4 | 3 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| MIA | Q4 9:47 | 8 | 29 | Missed field goal | 10–20 |
| NE | Q4 5:59 | 10 | 49 | End of half | 10–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 26/41 | 232 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 17 | 39 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 16/29 | 140 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 18 | 38 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.32