Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
47
Model margin
+2.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play+0.072
- 43.0%Success rate44.8%
- +0.117EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.049
- 11.1%Explosive rate9.5%
- -1.03CPOE+2.07
- 42.8%Third-down rate45.7%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.67Points / drive1.91
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. NO are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 47 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PHI | Q1 8:56 | 6 | 39 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 5:08 | 9 | 59 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| PHI | Q1 0:19 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NO | Q2 14:26 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| PHI | Q2 13:30 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NO | Q2 12:49 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PHI | Q2 11:46 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NO | Q2 9:40 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PHI | Q2 7:52 | 11 | 46 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| NO | Q2 3:03 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NO | Q2 1:44 | 4 | 24 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| PHI | Q2 0:15 | 2 | 13 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 73 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| NO | Q3 13:20 | 8 | 41 | Punt | 10–17 |
| PHI | Q3 9:16 | 7 | 42 | Punt | 10–17 |
| NO | Q3 5:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–17 |
| PHI | Q3 4:54 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| NO | Q3 1:03 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 23–17 |
| PHI | Q4 15:00 | 1 | 15 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| NO | Q4 14:54 | 5 | 69 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| PHI | Q4 12:52 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 24–24 |
| NO | Q4 8:26 | 14 | 81 | Field goal | 24–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/32 | 247 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 16 | 72 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 1 |
| Ryan Moats | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 27/37 | 275 | 3 | 2 |
| Joe Horn | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
6.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.61