2006 · Week 7
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
PHI -6
Total
42
Model margin
-0.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play-0.186
- 43.0%Success rate37.6%
- +0.117EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.149
- 11.1%Explosive rate6.4%
- -1.03CPOE-4.51
- 42.8%Third-down rate37.4%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate43.2%
- 1.67Points / drive0.82
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 55 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 10:14 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 7:33 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 5:50 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 3:59 | 3 | 43 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 2:29 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 0:29 | 5 | 19 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q2 14:04 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q2 12:34 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q2 10:33 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q2 6:32 | 12 | 54 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q2 0:59 | 7 | 78 | End of half | 0–7 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 58 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| PHI | Q3 6:55 | 3 | 20 | Opp touchdown | 0–17 |
| PHI | Q3 5:19 | 8 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| TB | Q3 0:36 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–17 |
| PHI | Q4 13:17 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| TB | Q4 8:47 | 10 | 18 | Field goal | 14–20 |
| PHI | Q4 2:49 | 8 | 85 | Touchdown | 21–20 |
| TB | Q4 0:33 | 4 | 20 | Field goal | 21–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 22/35 | 302 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 101 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 6 | 76 | 12.7 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Gradkowski | 13/26 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 23 | 82 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.63