Closing spread
CHI -16
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.046
- 39.6%Success rate40.3%
- -0.094EPA / dropback-0.039
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.054
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.4%
- -0.50CPOE-3.50
- 33.3%Third-down rate37.7%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 1.43Points / drive1.80
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 7-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SF | Q1 12:05 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 11:57 | 3 | 15 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| SF | Q1 10:39 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CHI | Q1 8:27 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SF | Q1 6:07 | 3 | 20 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| CHI | Q1 4:45 | 6 | 41 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| SF | Q1 1:55 | 1 | 3 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| CHI | Q1 1:42 | 2 | 13 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| SF | Q1 1:02 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–24 |
| CHI | Q2 14:27 | 8 | 33 | Touchdown | 0–31 |
| SF | Q2 10:33 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–31 |
| CHI | Q2 8:31 | 9 | 49 | Field goal | 0–34 |
| SF | Q2 3:15 | 6 | 48 | Turnover | 0–34 |
| CHI | Q2 1:12 | 4 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–41 |
| SF | Q2 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–41 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 35 | Punt | 0–41 |
| CHI | Q3 10:28 | 18 | 95 | Turnover on downs | 0–41 |
| SF | Q3 1:28 | 9 | 89 | Field goal | 3–41 |
| CHI | Q4 11:35 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–41 |
| SF | Q4 9:57 | 7 | 55 | Touchdown | 10–41 |
| CHI | Q4 6:49 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 10–41 |
| SF | Q4 1:59 | 3 | -5 | Turnover | 10–41 |
| CHI | Q4 1:22 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 16/26 | 146 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 12 | 111 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 23/29 | 252 | 3 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2/3 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 23 | 111 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Cedric Benson | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.25