2006 · Week 8
Final
Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 20mph
Closing spread
NYG -9.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.186EPA / play-0.017
- 37.6%Success rate45.6%
- -0.208EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.017
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- -4.51CPOE-3.95
- 37.4%Third-down rate38.8%
- 43.2%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 0.82Points / drive1.77
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 8–5 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. NYG are 8-3-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 13:35 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 9:49 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 8:20 | 8 | 53 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 3:27 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 2:29 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 1:27 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q2 14:26 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q2 12:56 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q2 11:53 | 5 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| TB | Q2 10:24 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q2 10:19 | 3 | 28 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| TB | Q2 8:50 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 0–14 |
| NYG | Q2 7:37 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–14 |
| TB | Q2 6:02 | 14 | 49 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| NYG | Q2 0:58 | 2 | 2 | End of half | 3–14 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 3–14 |
| TB | Q3 12:47 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 3–14 |
| NYG | Q3 11:01 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 3–14 |
| TB | Q3 8:08 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 3–14 |
| NYG | Q3 6:19 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 3–14 |
| TB | Q3 3:17 | 7 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 3–14 |
| NYG | Q4 14:13 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–14 |
| TB | Q4 12:37 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–14 |
| NYG | Q4 11:20 | 11 | 69 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| TB | Q4 3:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–17 |
| NYG | Q4 3:15 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–17 |
| TB | Q4 1:54 | 11 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 3–17 |
| NYG | Q4 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Gradkowski | 20/48 | 139 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 16/31 | 154 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 26 | 68 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.98