2006 · Week 8
Final
Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 20mph
Closing spread
NYG -9.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.186EPA / play-0.017
- 37.6%Success rate45.6%
- -0.208EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.017
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- -4.51CPOE-3.95
- 37.4%Third-down rate38.8%
- 43.2%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 0.82Points / drive1.77
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 8–5 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. NYG are 8-3-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Gradkowski | 20/48 | 139 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 16/31 | 154 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 26 | 68 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.98