Closing spread
NE -3
Total
48
Model margin
+3.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.153EPA / play+0.063
- 51.4%Success rate44.2%
- +0.294EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.007
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- +4.70CPOE+0.89
- 56.7%Third-down rate43.7%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.54Points / drive1.82
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 61 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 9:13 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 4:30 | 11 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| IND | Q2 14:25 | 8 | 82 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| NE | Q2 9:56 | 11 | 61 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| IND | Q2 4:14 | 6 | -3 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| NE | Q2 1:46 | 8 | 22 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| IND | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–14 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 45 | Missed field goal | 17–14 |
| NE | Q3 12:21 | 1 | 4 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| IND | Q3 12:16 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 17–14 |
| NE | Q3 11:28 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 17–14 |
| IND | Q3 9:31 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| NE | Q3 6:56 | 6 | 7 | Field goal | 24–17 |
| IND | Q3 5:18 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 24–17 |
| NE | Q3 5:07 | 7 | 18 | Missed field goal | 24–17 |
| IND | Q3 1:22 | 9 | 39 | Turnover | 24–17 |
| NE | Q4 13:16 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 24–17 |
| IND | Q4 13:04 | 7 | 18 | Field goal | 27–17 |
| NE | Q4 10:17 | 9 | 48 | Field goal | 27–20 |
| IND | Q4 6:01 | 7 | 33 | Missed field goal | 27–20 |
| NE | Q4 1:55 | 2 | 25 | Turnover | 27–20 |
| IND | Q4 1:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/36 | 326 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 18 | 43 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/35 | 201 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.78