Closing spread
NE -3
Total
48
Model margin
+3.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.153EPA / play+0.063
- 51.4%Success rate44.2%
- +0.294EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.007
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- +4.70CPOE+0.89
- 56.7%Third-down rate43.7%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.54Points / drive1.82
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/36 | 326 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 18 | 43 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/35 | 201 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.78