Closing spread
IND -12
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.153
- 41.6%Success rate51.4%
- -0.033EPA / dropback+0.294
- -0.157EPA / rush-0.043
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.8%
- +3.28CPOE+4.70
- 30.9%Third-down rate56.7%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.31Points / drive2.54
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. IND are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 65 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| IND | Q1 6:52 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 5:05 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| IND | Q1 1:22 | 10 | 68 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q2 11:09 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 9:33 | 12 | 78 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| BUF | Q2 2:44 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| IND | Q2 1:43 | 6 | 57 | Opp touchdown | 10–10 |
| IND | Q2 0:31 | 2 | 5 | End of half | 10–10 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| BUF | Q3 10:30 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| IND | Q3 8:47 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 13–17 |
| BUF | Q3 5:52 | 8 | 19 | Punt | 13–17 |
| IND | Q3 2:43 | 8 | 19 | Punt | 13–17 |
| BUF | Q4 15:00 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 16–17 |
| IND | Q4 10:35 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 16–17 |
| BUF | Q4 8:49 | 4 | 18 | Missed field goal | 16–17 |
| IND | Q4 6:22 | 8 | 44 | End of half | 16–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 9/13 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 28 | 109 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/39 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 13 | 78 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 14 | 72 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.56