Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
37
Model margin
+1.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.017
- 40.3%Success rate45.6%
- -0.039EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.017
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- -3.50CPOE-3.95
- 37.7%Third-down rate38.8%
- 50.6%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 1.80Points / drive1.77
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. NYG are 9-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 18/30 | 246 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 30 | 113 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Cedric Benson | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 14/32 | 121 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 19 | 141 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.39