Closing spread
NE -10.5
Total
38
Model margin
+3.9est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.063
- 43.0%Success rate44.2%
- +0.057EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.007
- 6.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- +2.38CPOE+0.89
- 44.6%Third-down rate43.7%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.74Points / drive1.82
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 22/33 | 168 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 17 | 75 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/37 | 255 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 11 | 98 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.87