2006 · Week 10 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
CAR -10
Total
37
Model margin
+4.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.186EPA / play-0.071
- 37.6%Success rate41.2%
- -0.208EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.112
- 6.4%Explosive rate8.2%
- -4.51CPOE-0.31
- 37.4%Third-down rate31.1%
- 43.2%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 0.82Points / drive1.29
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Gradkowski | 17/32 | 173 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 22/34 | 240 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.89