2006 · Week 11

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

17·20

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Bruce Gradkowski

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

33.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.006EPA / play-0.186
  • 40.9%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.034EPA / dropback-0.208
  • -0.052EPA / rush-0.149
  • 10.8%Explosive rate6.4%
  • -2.46CPOE-4.51
  • 38.5%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 52.5%Red-zone TD rate43.2%
  • 1.58Points / drive0.82
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.5 points. TB are 7-9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsWAS @ TB23–20WAS
2024 · W1WAS @ TB20–37TB
2021 · W10TB @ WAS19–29WAS
2020 · playoffsTB @ WAS31–23TB
2018 · W10WAS @ TB16–3WAS
2015 · W7TB @ WAS30–31WAS
2014 · W11TB @ WAS27–7TB
2012 · W4WAS @ TB24–22WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell19/3419620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Duckett5265.20
Ladell Betts7182.60
Jason Campbell5112.20
Mike Sellers263.00
Antwaan Randle El133.00

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bruce Gradkowski14/2117821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams271224.50
Michael Pittman2178.50
Bruce Gradkowski691.50
Michael Clayton155.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.38
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.49