2006 · Week 11
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
33.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.186
- 40.9%Success rate37.6%
- +0.034EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.149
- 10.8%Explosive rate6.4%
- -2.46CPOE-4.51
- 38.5%Third-down rate37.4%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate43.2%
- 1.58Points / drive0.82
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.5 points. TB are 7-9-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 13:21 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 12:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 11:05 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 9:29 | 9 | 49 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q1 3:50 | 5 | 27 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| TB | Q1 1:01 | 9 | 48 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| WAS | Q2 11:45 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 3–3 |
| TB | Q2 8:00 | 13 | 80 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| WAS | Q2 0:36 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–3 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 74 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| TB | Q3 9:34 | 15 | 81 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| WAS | Q3 0:58 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–10 |
| TB | Q4 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–10 |
| WAS | Q4 13:30 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| TB | Q4 10:53 | 3 | 40 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| WAS | Q4 9:35 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–17 |
| TB | Q4 7:53 | 6 | 44 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| WAS | Q4 3:50 | 15 | 90 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| TB | Q4 0:32 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 19/34 | 196 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Gradkowski | 14/21 | 178 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 27 | 122 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.38
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.49