Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
35
Model margin
+0.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.089
- 42.5%Success rate41.6%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.033
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.157
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.26CPOE+3.28
- 39.0%Third-down rate30.9%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
- 1.59Points / drive1.31
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 29 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 11:14 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 9:41 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 8:15 | 6 | 21 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 5:27 | 4 | 28 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 3:23 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 1:09 | 6 | 11 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q2 12:58 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q2 10:25 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| JAX | Q2 6:32 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q2 1:11 | 2 | 8 | End of half | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 14–17 |
| JAX | Q3 12:57 | 7 | -2 | Punt | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q3 8:41 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 14–17 |
| JAX | Q3 6:18 | 3 | 8 | Opp touchdown | 14–24 |
| JAX | Q3 3:46 | 7 | 33 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| BUF | Q4 14:56 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–24 |
| JAX | Q4 13:19 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–24 |
| BUF | Q4 12:00 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 17–24 |
| JAX | Q4 7:36 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 17–24 |
| BUF | Q4 5:13 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–24 |
| JAX | Q4 2:58 | 11 | 72 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| BUF | Q4 0:28 | 3 | 36 | Field goal | 24–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 16/22 | 132 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 22 | 101 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 8 | 78 | 9.8 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 21/28 | 169 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Robert Royal | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.56