Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
48
Model margin
+0.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.050
- 44.8%Success rate39.9%
- +0.157EPA / dropback-0.078
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.021
- 9.5%Explosive rate10.3%
- +2.07CPOE-2.80
- 45.7%Third-down rate36.3%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.91Points / drive1.44
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 13:25 | 10 | 38 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:55 | 7 | 52 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| ATL | Q1 4:44 | 8 | 66 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| NO | Q1 1:14 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 14–3 |
| ATL | Q2 14:48 | 8 | 46 | Punt | 14–3 |
| NO | Q2 11:17 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 14–3 |
| ATL | Q2 8:15 | 13 | 50 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| NO | Q2 1:11 | 6 | 82 | Touchdown | 21–6 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 21–6 |
| NO | Q3 12:55 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 21–6 |
| ATL | Q3 12:21 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–6 |
| NO | Q3 11:10 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 21–6 |
| ATL | Q3 10:05 | 6 | 47 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| NO | Q3 8:04 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 21–13 |
| ATL | Q3 5:31 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 21–13 |
| NO | Q3 3:49 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 21–13 |
| ATL | Q3 2:39 | 9 | 44 | Punt | 21–13 |
| NO | Q4 13:49 | 13 | 65 | Field goal | 24–13 |
| ATL | Q4 5:48 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 24–13 |
| NO | Q4 4:16 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 31–13 |
| ATL | Q4 2:23 | 6 | 32 | End of half | 31–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 21/30 | 349 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 20 | 71 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 9/24 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12 | 166 | 13.8 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 19 | 52 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.53
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.03