2006 · Week 12

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Bruce Gradkowski

10·38

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 76°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DAL -12.5

Total

39

Model margin

+4.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.186EPA / play+0.072
  • 37.6%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.208EPA / dropback+0.143
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.024
  • 6.4%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -4.51CPOE+3.73
  • 37.4%Third-down rate49.3%
  • 43.2%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 0.82Points / drive2.18
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 9–6 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. DAL are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16TB @ DAL24–26DAL
2022 · playoffsDAL @ TB31–14DAL
2022 · W1TB @ DAL19–3TB
2021 · W1DAL @ TB29–31TB
2018 · W16TB @ DAL20–27DAL
2016 · W15TB @ DAL20–26DAL
2015 · W10DAL @ TB6–10TB
2012 · W3TB @ DAL10–16DAL

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bruce Gradkowski10/2012002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams17784.60
Bruce Gradkowski4174.30
Michael Pittman122.00

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo22/2930650

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber16835.20
Julius Jones11403.60
Tony Romo3-4-1.30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.47