2006 · Week 12
Final
Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 76°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
DAL -12.5
Total
39
Model margin
+4.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.186EPA / play+0.072
- 37.6%Success rate45.5%
- -0.208EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.024
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.8%
- -4.51CPOE+3.73
- 37.4%Third-down rate49.3%
- 43.2%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 0.82Points / drive2.18
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 36.8 points. DAL are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 9:18 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TB | Q1 6:31 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 5:00 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| TB | Q1 1:09 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q1 0:48 | 10 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| TB | Q2 11:33 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| DAL | Q2 6:38 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–14 |
| TB | Q2 4:53 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 10–14 |
| DAL | Q2 1:58 | 4 | 59 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| TB | Q2 0:30 | 2 | 21 | End of half | 10–21 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 91 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| TB | Q3 9:55 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 10–28 |
| DAL | Q3 9:01 | 5 | 30 | Touchdown | 10–35 |
| TB | Q3 6:30 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 10–35 |
| DAL | Q3 3:36 | 12 | 70 | Field goal | 10–38 |
| TB | Q4 10:00 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 10–38 |
| DAL | Q4 7:30 | 9 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 10–38 |
| TB | Q4 0:31 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Gradkowski | 10/20 | 120 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 22/29 | 306 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 16 | 83 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.47