Closing spread
CHI -9
Total
34
Model margin
+4.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.151EPA / play-0.046
- 39.3%Success rate40.3%
- -0.174EPA / dropback-0.039
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.054
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.13CPOE-3.50
- 33.2%Third-down rate37.7%
- 45.1%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 0.99Points / drive1.80
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 11/26 | 73 | 0 | 4 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 7/9 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 3/4 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 17 | 99 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Ciatrick Fason | 11 | 75 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 6/19 | 34 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 4 | -9 | -2.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
40.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.26