Closing spread
SD -5.5
Total
40
Model margin
+1.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 23 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:04 | 7 | 34 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 9:12 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 5:18 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 2:41 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 1:40 | 2 | 59 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| BUF | Q1 1:06 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q1 0:04 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–0 |
| BUF | Q2 13:26 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q2 11:23 | 6 | 36 | Missed field goal | 10–0 |
| BUF | Q2 8:31 | 6 | 8 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q2 5:46 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| BUF | Q2 2:34 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q2 0:54 | 5 | 43 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| BUF | Q2 0:24 | 3 | 26 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| BUF | Q3 13:33 | 4 | 19 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q3 11:33 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 17–7 |
| BUF | Q3 10:04 | 4 | 13 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LAC | Q3 8:09 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 17–14 |
| BUF | Q3 3:54 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LAC | Q3 2:25 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 17–14 |
| BUF | Q4 14:04 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LAC | Q4 11:32 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| BUF | Q4 3:26 | 4 | 0 | Turnover | 24–14 |
| BUF | Q4 2:26 | 9 | 57 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| LAC | Q4 0:30 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 21/37 | 184 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 16 | 26 | 1.6 | 1 |
| J.P. Losman | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.